Strengthening civil resilience: investigation of Lithuanian food supply chain dependencies and solutions

Problem

Food security and supply chain resilience have become increasingly relevant topics in the context of civil preparedness at both European Union and national levels. Regional crises have demonstrated that food product availability and supply chain reliability are among the key factors of civil society stability during emergency situations. 

In 2025, the European Union imported food products worth a record EUR 188.6 billion (9% increase), while Lithuania imported EUR 5.4 billion (12.3% of total country imports) [1]. This means that a significant portion of our food systems depends on the stability of international supply chains. 

Lithuania faces a dual challenge: a large share of agricultural production is exported as raw materials, while critical prepared food products, raw materials required for production, and packaging materials are fully or largely dependent on imports. SAM Order V-641 – the list of essential food products in case of crisis – identifies 19 critical product categories, but there is a lack of systematic visibility regarding how many of these products are manufactured in Lithuania, how many are imported, and how quickly we could experience shortages if supply chains are disrupted. 

Specific examples demonstrate vulnerability: 

• Baby food:There is not a single manufacturer in Lithuania, making us completely dependent on imports. Supply disruption would directly affect hundreds of thousands of families. 
• Prepared food products:Products from cereals, flour, starch or milk (including baby food, pasta, flakes) account for EUR 341 million in imports, while domestic production in critical categories is limited. 
• Packaging materials:Even with food raw materials or prepared products available, the risk of packaging material shortage means that packaging and distribution may stop due to lack of plastic bottles, caps, or cans. This critically affects the availability of water, dairy products, and canned food. 

At the EU level, these issues gain importance through the Directive on the resilience of critical entities (Directive (EU) 2022/2557), which establishes mandatory resilience requirements for food production, processing, and logistics companies. The proposed research provides an opportunity to systematically assess the vulnerability of Lithuania’s food supply chains and establish priorities for strengthening resilience. Through appropriate policy instruments, technological solutions, and circular economy principles, Lithuania can reduce import dependency risks and improve civil preparedness for various scenarios. 

Sources: 

1. Lietuvos statistikos departamentas (2025). Tarptautinė prekyba prekėmis. Link: https://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?indicator=S6R007 

Goal

The goal of the project is to conduct a systematic investigation of critical food products and raw material import dependencies, which would establish the true import dependency according to the SAM V-641 list, assess supply source vulnerability (EU vs. non-EU countries), and propose technological, circular economy, and green technology solutions to reduce dependencies. 

Participants

2025/26

Monika Černiauskaitė